When all the chips have been betted, and only river to come, on most occasions, like this one, it is clear who is the favorite and is praying not to get a suck out.
Case at hand - heads up, final table of a small tournament. Yours truly is 1:4 out-chipped, but 7:1 favorite on the hand. Flop has 4,7,8 when unsub goes all-in with her mountain of chips. Since i had 7,9 and it didn't feel like unsub was trying to earn my chips, the guess is that unsub either has a baby pair or a couple of over cards.
Either way, with turn & river to come, approximate calculations make me 7:3 favorite - if not better. So, i go all in. Unsub turns up K,10; the guesses were more or less fine, there were 6 card out of forty-five that could end this thing badly for me. Otherwise, i'd be doubling up and the rest of the heads-up play would be fun because being out-chipped 4:5 is not being that out-chipped at all.
It is seldom that Aces are inconsequential - but when the turn card was one, it really was...and made me a 7:1 favorite. 3 10s and 3 Ks still in play, 1 card to come from the 44, and 6 of 'em could sink me, otherwise unsub would begin to sweat, and we'd have a match on our hands to get our sweaty hands on the prize.
River is K! Game Over. Unsub wins KK against my 77 - it sucks, but it could be worse!
After all he did build that 4:1 chip lead over the final table, while both of us definitely had our eyes on finishing in the money. Those details are another story - but definitely unsub was more aggressive, enterprising and skilfull.
What about Luck?
Guess at any stage of a tournament there are two key dimensions - Chip count & Hand strength. I will lapse into the two-by-two matrix (which is all 90% of folks take away from b-school, i guess) now. Chip count on X taking the values 'Leader' and 'Laggard'. Hand strength (when the chips are all out) taking the values 'Favorite' and 'Dark Horse'.
In may case I was in the Laggard-Favorite quadrant, where having sucked out (and into 2nd place) on the hand, I'll have to put my hand up and say unsub played better to get into the 'Leader' half of the chart. Mirror image for the unsub, i guess - Leader X Dark Horse - if someone were to criticize her for having merely lucked into 1st position, she'd point to the superior play that allowed her to build the 4:1 chip lead.
Putting players A and B into the quadrants, I realize that most often they would simply fall into the other two quadrants - that is, Leader X Favorite for one, and Laggard X Dark Horse for the other.
If you won a hand from Laggard X Dark Horse, then you have indeed been very lucky. You need to improve a great deal, in a general sense, or you are just way too sleepy.
If you lost a hand from Leader X Favorite, then you have taken a hit, but as long as you don't begin to tilt, take a few deep breaths, drink a glass of water, take a walk, talk to someone who loves you, you'll be okay.
If you have gotten to my last paragraph without skipping any of the preceding ones, it felt like a larger insight (as flawed as it may be) into li
Take New Year's week & weekend - party hard, go for a jog, meet some friends, and play some poker - you must have had a good time, especially if you won some money too.
No comments:
Post a Comment