When all the chips have been bet, with only river to come, on most occasions, like this one, it is clear who is the favorite and is praying not to get a suck out.
Case at hand - heads up, final table of a small tournament. Yours truly is 1:4 out-chipped, but 7:1 favorite on the hand. Flop has 4,7,8 when unsub goes all-in with her mountain of chips. Since i had 7,9 and it didn't feel like unsub was trying to earn my chips, my guess is that she either has a baby pair or a couple of over cards.
Either way, with turn & river to come, approximate calculations make me 7:3 favorite - if not better. So, i go all in. Unsub turns up K,10; the guesses were more or less fine, there were 6 cards out of forty-five that could end this thing badly for me. Otherwise, i'd be doubling up and the rest of the heads-up play would be fun because being out-chipped 4:5 is not being that out-chipped at all.
It is seldom that Aces are inconsequential - but when the turn card was one, it really was...and made me a 7:1 favorite. 3 10s and 3 Ks still in play, 1 card to come from the 44, and 6 of 'em could sink me, otherwise unsub would begin to sweat, and we'd have a scrap to get our sweaty hands on the prize.
River is K! Game Over. Unsub wins KK against my 77 - it sucks, but it could be worse!
After all she did build that 4:1 chip lead over the final table, while both of us definitely had our eyes on finishing in the money (top-3 places paid). Those details are another story - but definitely unsub was more aggressive, enterprising and skilfull.
What about Luck?
Guess at any stage of a tournament, any given hand, there are two key dimensions of luck - Chip count & Hand strength. I will lapse into the two-by-two matrix (which is all 90% of folks take away from b-school, i guess) now. Chip count on X axis taking the values 'Leader' and 'Laggard'. Hand strength (when the chips are all out)on Y axis taking the values 'Favorite' and 'Dark Horse'.
In my case I was in the Laggard-Favorite quadrant, where having sucked out (and into 2nd place) on the hand, I'll have to admit that unsub played better to get into the 'Leader' half of the chart. Mirror image for the unsub, i guess - Leader X Dark Horse - if someone were to criticize her for having merely lucked into 1st position, she'd point to the superior play that allowed her to build the 4:1 chip lead, in the first place.
Putting two random players A and B into the quadrants, I realize that most often they would simply fall into the other two quadrants - that is, Leader X Favorite for one, and Laggard X Dark Horse for the other.
If you won a hand from Laggard X Dark Horse, then you have indeed been very lucky. Remember you need to be good over hundreds of hands to do well over the long run. You need to improve a great deal, in a general sense, or you are just way too sleepy.
If you lost a hand from Leader X Favorite, then you have taken a hit, but as long as you don't begin to tilt, take a few deep breaths, drink a glass of water, take a walk, get good exercise, talk to someone who loves you, you'll be okay.
Whereever you might be on the two-by-two, from the Laggard, Good Luck!! Happy New Year!
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The 2x2 matrix is an interesting theory! I suppose yours would have been an important tournament. I lost in a small league face book poker tournament a few days back and lost a lot of confidence in my playing abilities!
ReplyDeleteIn the regular games, I usually manage to increase my chips steadily day by day, so I felt I was an intelligent player- less risks, but steady gain(I don't calculate odds and all that, just play with the strength of my hand and a little bluffing:)
But when I play tournaments, I have seen that they are a different ball game all together. I won an initial tournament, by virtue of playing patiently and was very confident. After that, I found that I couldn't manage to win. I realised then that there was a pattern to the winners. Most of the players tend to take a lot of risks to maximise their chips in the first round. So they don't mind going out in the initial stages if there is a chance of getting a lot of chips. When a few of them do go out, there is one with a lot of chips and the rest, cautious ones with the standard amount. Then the former has a better chance. From here onwards, its a matter of patience and intelligence.
I tried this strategy once and I was one among the last two with 6 times the amount of chips as the other player. But I didn't play by going all in and forcing the other to fold. If I had done that within 5 games, I could have won. Instead I was too honest, took less risk and managed to lose!!!! I felt bad afterwards. I didnt do an analysis, so I don't know. Maybe now I should think of myself as having been in the Leader X Dark Horse category( without ever evoking the dark horse, but giving up)rather than in the Leader X Favorite category to cheer myself up and gain back confidence:)
And what about risk taking, uncalculating stupid, fresher players who upset commonly held norms and therefore disrupt the game? I see a lot of that. Are they filtered out at your level of playing/tournaments?
ReplyDeleteSita, you mention 'honest', in fact 'too honest' - guess that is something that never helps. Idea is to be devious, and devious^N where people can't get whether N is even or odd :-); so they dont get whether you are bluffing or playing your hand. You might want to read up the 'Fundamental Theorem of Poker' - David Sklansky.
ReplyDeleteIf you are in a table with the loose-aggresive players (poker talk for seemingly uncalculating/ stupid)...you want to be able to adjust.
Eg: normally if someone called your 5BB raise, then you would think there are two high cards, or a pair with that player. With a loose-aggressive you try & say, 'well, he could have a random two-card hand'...and then play accordingly. But that is what Daniel Negreanu would do, a lesser & barely mortal like myself just folds/ checks :-))
Tournaments get tighter as they go along...since the big blinds increase every 10mins or so, you may have more chips but actually fewer Big Blinds. Logic for taking the risks early on is that you have a good number of big blinds that allow bouncing back if an initial risk doesn't quite work out. Interesting you refer to confidence in your playing abilities, i just begin to think 'maybe God doesn't love me that much' :-))
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