Why Germany and USA will fight it out in the real group of death?

Group-G in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil has thrown up some sumptuous contests. Germany, Portugal, USA and Ghana have thrown up the variety of flavours of play that, perhaps, only football can boast of. The last of the group games featuring the teams of group-G will be played on the 26^th of June at Brasilia (POR v GHA) and Recife (USA v GER). On 1 point apiece, both Portugal and Ghana would play all out for the win, hoping that USA slip up against Germany. Of course, Germany losing will not help the cause of the Group-G chasers (they already have a +4 goal difference and surely the Portugal Ghana game is not going to be so lopsided. Again, Portugal’s cause seems doomed with the -4 goal difference they are staring at. But with 4 points apiece USA and Germany are in the driver’s seat in Group-G and unless one of the team has a real disutility from facing Belgium (who look sure to top Group-H) in the 2^nd round, they could simply play out a draw. Such collusion will shut the door firmly in Ghana and Portugal. So, will that happen?

Let us say that there is a chance that both teams would prefer to avoid Belgium (P_u, P_g being the probabilities that USA and Germany prefers to avoid Belgium in the 2^nd round). As far as these probabilities are non-zero, a single goal might nick it in favour of the team that chooses to break the collusive pact (should they make one) and go for the win. The only reason Germany would renege on the collusive agreement is because of a desire to avoid Belgium. USA has another reason too. Should they lose by a single goal and should Ghana win by two goals or more, USA would be knocked out of the group stages.

Knowing that USA has enough reason to compete hard for the win in the final Group-G game, it is best that Germany does the same too. Knowing this, in turn, makes going for the win in the final group game the only thing USA can do.

Of course, knowing for sure that they face an opponent set up to play for the win opens up opportunities for Germany. Be it a relatively open game or chances to hit on the break, be sure that Germany finds a collusive and drab draw unappealing. Of course, should they have any real aversion to face Belgium then it becomes less likely that Germany would settle for a drab ‘sure fire qualifier’ result. Indeed, other than the Ghana – Portugal game turning out to be a lopsided goal-fest Germany is sure to qualify.

The other game, the one between Portugal and Ghana is going to be an exciting one too. After all, the only way for Portugal to qualify is to pump in goals for fun hoping that the clash at the top of the group will yield as lopsided a result as possible. The least Ghana needs to do is win by two goals and hope that USA will lose, or pump in goals for fun in the scenario of Germany losing to USA.

All in all, Group-G, the real group of death, is set up for an exciting culmination on 26^th June. USA and Ghana will wonder about the last gasp goals which denied them fair weather. But all these teams have much to play for, and I think they will! Read here for a coverage across all groups heading into the final group double headers - http://www.smh.com.au/fifa-world-cup-2014/world-cup-news-2014/wholl-make-it-world-cup-scenarios-before-group-finales-20140623-zsijm.html. 

* Caveat: facts are from midnight world cup on television for a little longer than I might be fit for!